Ad hoc export restrictions and food security: modelling the effects of export restrictions in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan on world grain markets

In recent years Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) became major players in the international trade of agricultural products. Especially with regard to grain, the increase of RUK exports certainly helped to improve global food security. However, in 2010 the RUK countries introduced export restriction measures on grains further to major harvest failures due to severe droughts. Due to the importance of the RUK countries for world grain markets, the export restrictions had adverse effects on international food security by adding to instable world grain markets and contributing to spikes in international food prices; however it is not clear to which extent. By replicating the harvest situation of 2010 in RUK, this paper provides a model-based quantitative assessment of the impact of different grain export restriction measures (bans, tariffs, quotas) in RUK on food security by quantifying their impact on world and domestic grains market quantities and prices. For the quantitative analysis AGLINK-COSIMO, a recursive-dynamic, partial equilibrium, supply-demand model, has been applied. Scenario results indicate that if the RUK countries apply ad hoc export restrictions as a response of lower domestic grain availability, the resulting effects on international and domestic grains markets depend on both the specific export restriction measure and the country profile. Results show that especially for a country like Ukraine, i.e. a country usually exporting large shares of its grains production, the introduction of ad hoc export bans or very restrictive export quotas do not only over privilege domestic consumers but have also severe negative effects on the international grains markets by contributing significantly to price increases and thus have adverse effects on global food security.

NEKHAY Olexandr;  HELAINE Sophie;  FELLMANN Thomas; 

2013-07-11

EcoMod Network

JRC73492

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC73492,