Assessing climate change effects on European crop yields using the Crop Growth Monitoring System and a weather generator
Climate change impacts on potential and rainfed crop yields on the European continent were studied using
output of three General Circulation Models and the Crop Growth Monitoring System in combination with
a weather generator.
Climate change impacts differ per crop type and per CO2 emission scenario. Crops planted in autumn
and winter (winter wheat) may benefit from the increasing CO2 concentration. Rainfall is sufficient and
if the CO2 concentration increase is high, yields may increase up to 2090. If the CO2 increase is less,
increasing temperatures result in declining or stagnating yields after 2050.
Crops planted in spring (potato, sugar beet) initially benefit from the CO2 increase, however as time
progresses the increasing temperatures reduce these positive effects. By the end of the century yields
decline in southern Europe and production may only be possible if enough irrigation water is available.
In northern Europe depending on the temperature and CO2 concentration increase, yields either stagnate
or decline. However in some of the cooler regions yield increase is still possible.
Crops planted in late spring and summer (maize) may suffer from droughts and high temperature
in summer. By the end of the century, depending on the temperature rise, crop yields decline almost
everywhere. If the temperature increase is less only in north western Europe yields remain stable.
SUPIT Iwan;
VAN DIEPEN Cees;
DE WIT Allard;
WOLF Joost;
KABAT P.;
BARUTH Bettina;
LUDWIG Faulco;
2012-11-28
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
JRC73952
0168-1923,
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