A multi-criteria optimisation of scenarios for the protection of water resources in Europe: Support to the EU Blueprint to Safeguard Europe’s Waters

Abstract

A modelling environment has been developed to assess optimum combinations of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures for continental Europe. This modelling environment consists of linking the agricultural CAPRI model, the LUMP land use model, the LISFLOOD water quantity model, the EPIC water quality model, the LISQUAL combined water quantity, quality and hydro-economic model, and a multi-criteria optimisation routine. Simulations have been carried out to assess the effects of water retention measures, water savings measures, and nutrient reduction measures on several hydro-chemical indicators, such as the Water Exploitation Index, Environmental Flow indicators, N and P concentrations in rivers, the 50-year return period river discharge as an indicator for flooding, and economic losses due to water scarcity for the agricultural sector, the manufacturing-industry sector, the energy-production sector and the domestic sector. Also, potential flood damage of a 100-year return period flood has been used as an indicator. The study shows that technically this modelling software environment can deliver optimum scenario combinations of packages of measures that improve various water quantity and water quality indicators, but that additional work is needed before final conclusions can be made using the tool. Further work is necessary, especially in the economic loss estimations, the water prices and price-elasticity, as well as the implementation and maintenance costs of individual scenarios.