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dc.contributor.authorBURRELL Alisonen_GB
dc.contributor.authorNII-NAATE ZEBEDEEen_GB
dc.date.accessioned2013-08-14T00:03:52Z-
dc.date.available2013-06-13en_GB
dc.date.available2013-08-14T00:03:52Z-
dc.date.created2013-06-05en_GB
dc.date.issued2013en_GB
dc.date.submitted2012-10-24en_GB
dc.identifier.isbn978-92-79-29182-1en_GB
dc.identifier.issn1831-9424en_GB
dc.identifier.otherEUR 25898en_GB
dc.identifier.otherOPOCE LF-NA-25898-EN-Nen_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://ftp.jrc.es/EURdoc/JRC76019.pdfen_GB
dc.identifier.urihttp://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC76019-
dc.description.abstractThis report describes the methodology for performing partial stochastic analysis of the European Commission’s annual outlook projections for agricultural markets. The simulation model used is AGLINK-COSIMO, which is developed and maintained jointly by the OECD and FAO. Partial stochastic analysis quantifies the extent to which future uncertainty surrounding selected exogenous market drivers, which underlie the projections, affects the projected outlook for markets and prices. It does so by providing the range of values within which medium-term outcomes may lie in a future year, given the unforeseen variability exhibited by these exogenous variables in the past. This information supplements the point estimates provided by the outlook projections and allows the user to take into account the relative uncertainty of the various projected outcomes. The report details the statistical underpinnings of the methodology and the sequence of operational steps involved, as well as the additional software required. It then applies the methodology to the Commission’s 2012 outlook projections, providing information on how the projected agricultural market outcomes are affected by the uncertainty surrounding key macroeconomic variables (including exchange rates and the crude oil price) and agricultural crop yields. The potential of the approach to provide information relating to policy or behavioural discontinuities and thresholds, and for analysing specific ‘less likely’ situations, is also illustrated.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipJRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Economyen_GB
dc.format.mediumOnlineen_GB
dc.languageENGen_GB
dc.publisherPublications Office of the European Unionen_GB
dc.relation.ispartofseriesJRC76019en_GB
dc.titlePartial stochastic analysis with the European Commission's version of the AGLINK-COSIMO modelen_GB
dc.typeJRC Reference Reportsen_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.2791/87727en_GB
JRC Directorate:Growth and Innovation

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