An analysis of the intention-realisation discrepancy in EU farmers’ land investment decisions

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to explain the discrepancy between intentions of land investment and the observed realizations, during the decoupling reform. Following two survey undertaken in 2006 and 2009, we analyze the stated intentions of investments in land of 165 farmers in 5 EU case study areas (collected in 2006) and their realized investments between 2006 and 2009. The results of the econometric model used show consistency of the realization with the stated intention for the majority of the farms, with greater discrepancy showed in the subgroup that planned to invest compared to the group that did not. Stated intentions and realized investment in land are explained by common determinants, but also by drivers that are only relevant for one of the decisions. Stated intentions appear to be a good predictor of realized actions, even in the rapidly evolving context between the two surveys (agricultural policy reform and economic crisis). Some recommendations on the use of stated intention survey to study the farming sector are drawn.