Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission Trends and Drivers: A Survey of Techniques for Emission Decomposition and Econometric Trend analysis
This report was drafted for the Administrative Arrangement of JRC and DG CLIMA on “Analysis of greenhouse gas emission trends and drivers” and contains the literature review on emission trends and drivers, and describes two common methods of trend analysis: (i) decomposition methods for defining decomposed indicators, (ii) econometric techniques for finding cause‐and‐effects links and quantitative relationships between emissions and drivers. Given the dynamic importance when assessing the impact of drivers on emissions in near‐term scenarios, the methodology proposed in this report is to use econometric techniques as in (ii), possibly in combination with decomposition methods in (i) using time‐series data. Concerning data, an appropriate level of disaggregation within
sectors and even sub‐sectors is required for the analysis. The potential for future policy making is highest in the non‐ETS sectors, such as road transport and households sectors. The application of the methodology demands that appropriate time‐series data is available for the EU‐27 Member states. Such data needs to be carefully assembled from different sources. The availability of data for EU countries
appears significantly lower than for the United States, where data of good quality is abundant. Given the scope of the present project, a selection of a pilot case study appears mandatory. The pilot case study will be used to illustrate the potential benefits of the proposed methodology, which will involve econometric methods (as in ii) possibly combined with decomposition methods (as in i).
JANSSENS-MAENHOUT Greet;
PARUOLO Paolo;
MARTELLI Simone;
2014-01-23
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC78707
978-92-79-28602-5,
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 25814,
OP LB-NA-25814-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC78707,
10.2788/84075 (online),
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