New biological model to manage the impact of climate warming on maize corn borers

Climate change has the potential to modify the distribution and development of agricultural insect pests. The assessment of the potential effects remains relatively unexplored. Furthermore, they are often made using models based on linear relationships between temperature and development, which is not an adequate simplification of the real systems when used for future scenarios studies. In this study we estimated the potential winter survival, distribution, and phenological development of the maize borer Sesamia nonagrioides Lef. under current and future climate over Europe. Actual distribution was estimated using different sources of information. An original model based on the concept of lethal dose exposure was developed to simulate winter survival. Two approaches for the simulation of the winter survival were applied and compared: the first one using air temperature only as weather input, the second one taking into account the fraction of larvae overwintering in the soil, therefore considering also soil temperature. The survival model was linked to a phenological model to simulate the potential development. We showed that soil temperature is an essential input for correctly simulating S. nonagrioides distribution. The approach using only air temperature allowed identifying areas where the main agronomic practice suggested for controlling S. nonagrioides (uprooting and exposing the stubble on the soils surface for exposing larvae to winter cold) should be considered ineffective. The projections suggested an overall slight increase of more suitable conditions for the S. nonagrioides in almost all the areas where it develops under the baseline. The potential geographical spread of the insect is expected to increase toward Eastern Europe. The phenological model suggested that in these areas S. nonagrioides could become a new insect pest with a potential strong impact on maize productions. This study represents the first attempt to provide extensive estimates on the potential effects of climate change on S. nonagrioides, providing information on possible future changes on the management of this pest in the coming years.

MAIORANO Andrea;  CERRANI Iacopo;  FUMAGALLI Davide;  DONATELLI Marcello; 

2014-01-10

SPRINGER FRANCE

JRC83049

1774-0746,   

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13593-013-0185-2,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC83049,   

10.1007/s13593-013-0185-2,