Title: 50-Year Biogeochemical Model Simulations in the Mediterranean Sea
Citation: Proceedings of the Global Congress on ICM: Lessons Learned to Address New Chalengs
Publisher: Mediterranean Coastal Foundation
Publication Year: 2013
JRC N°: JRC83243
ISBN: 978-605-88990-9-4
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC83243
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: We present a detailed statistical analysis of the results from 50-year physical-biogeochemical simulations in the Mediterranean Sea. The data are generated by the 3-D General Estuarine Transport Model - GETM for the hydrodynamic fields and by the Fasham and ERGOM biogeochemical models for nutrients and chlorophyll. The coupled model is forced with ECMWF atmospheric data, realistic bathymetry, river discharges and riverine nutrient inputs. The horizontal resolution of the model output is 5'x5' and the multiannual runs cover the period from 1960 to 2011. The different data are analyzed with respect to autocorrelation, linear trends and the occurrence of breakpoints in the time series. The applied statistical methods always comprise significance tests and confidence limits for the investigated characteristics. It was not possible to identify a clear regime shift in the Mediterranean Sea at the end of the 1980s as proposed by Conversi et al. (2010). Most investigated physical and ecosystem variables are better described by a linear trend than by a non-linear function having a breakpoint.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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