We present a detailed statistical analysis of the results from 50-year physical-biogeochemical simulations in the Mediterranean Sea. The data are generated by the 3-D General Estuarine Transport Model - GETM for the hydrodynamic fields and by the Fasham and ERGOM biogeochemical models for nutrients and chlorophyll. The coupled model is forced with ECMWF atmospheric data, realistic bathymetry, river discharges and riverine nutrient inputs. The horizontal resolution of the model output is 5'x5' and the multiannual runs cover the period from 1960 to 2011. The different data are analyzed with respect to autocorrelation, linear trends and the occurrence of breakpoints in the time series. The applied statistical methods always comprise significance tests and confidence limits for the investigated characteristics. It was not possible to identify a clear regime shift in the Mediterranean Sea at the end of the 1980s as proposed by Conversi et al. (2010). Most investigated physical and ecosystem variables are better described by a linear trend than by a non-linear function having a breakpoint.

STIPS Adolf;  GARCIA GORRIZ Elisa; 

2014-01-31

Mediterranean Coastal Foundation

JRC83243

978-605-88990-9-4,   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC83243,