Title: Forecasting the Europe 2020 headline target on education and training. A panel data approach
Publisher: Publications Office of the European Union
Publication Year: 2013
JRC N°: JRC83346
ISBN: 978-92-79-32510-6 (print); 978-92-79-32509-0 (pdf)
ISSN: 1018-5593 (print); 1831-9424 (online)
Other Identifiers: EUR 26077
OPOCE LB-NA-26077-EN-C (print); LB-NA-26077-EN-N (online)
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC83346
DOI: 10.2788/92911
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: This analysis aims at proposing simple econometric models that can be used to forecast early leavers from education and training and tertiary education attainment benchmarks up to year 2020. The models are built on the theoretical framework of human capital and optimal schooling decisions and then estimated in a panel setting to better deal with a limited dataset. By looking back at the time period of enrolment and graduation, our approach could be seen as an attempt to identify the determinants that shape the education decisions of young individuals. We construct the forecasts under very simple assumptions about the expected adults’ education attainment and given the determinants of schooling decisions uncovered by our empirical analysis. The forecasts tell us how early school leaving and tertiary education attainment are likely to develop over the next years if nothing changes in terms of policy measures. This very strong assumption provides scope for policy action especially for those countries where the expected developments of model’s determinants are not enough to foresee a positive outcome.
JRC Directorate:Space, Security and Migration

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