Impacts of the EU biofuel policy on agricultural markets and land use - Modelling assessment with AGLINK-COSIMO (2012 version)
The European Union's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) sets an overall target of 20% of the EU's energy used to come from renewable sources by 2020. As part of this target, at least 10% of total transport fuel consumption is to come from renewable energies (RE). However, the extent to which these 2020 targets will be met is uncertain. On 17 October 2012, the European Commission published a proposal to amend the RED to improve the sustainability of biofuels. Therefore the development of the biofuel market is highly uncertain, especially in the EU. This report aims to analyse different scenarios that could occur in the EU in the years to come. First is an assumed situation in which by 2020 biofuels would contribute 8% towards the RE transport target. Secondly the EC's proposal is analysed. Finally a complete removal of the biofuel policy in the EU is simulated. All scenarios are compared to a situation with biofuels contributing 10% towards the target. The simulations are run with the AGLINK-COSIMO model.
The simulations show that less ethanol would be used if only 8% of transport fuel was to originate from biofuels (in % RED counting), and that with the EC's proposal biofuels would represent 7.5% of transport fuel. In these two cases, the use of renewable electricity could improve the chances of reaching the 10% RE in transport target. A no biofuel policy in the EU would result in a very low biofuel production. The impact of a no policy scenario on world prices is particularly significant for vegetable oils. The other feedstock prices are at most 5% below the base. In addition, if no biofuel policy was in place in the EU, close to 6 million hectares (0.7% of world total) less cereals, oilseeds, sugar crops and palm oil would be harvested in the world in 2020 in comparison to the base.
HÉLAINE Sophie;
M'BAREK Robert;
GAY Stephan Hubertus;
2013-10-01
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC83936
978-92-79-32649-3,
1831-9424,
EUR 26107,
OP LF-NA-26-107-EN-N,
ftp://ftp.jrc.es/pub/EURdoc/JRC83936.pdf,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC83936,
10.2791/20985,
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