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|Title:||Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts|
|Authors:||WETTERHALL Fredrik; PAPPENBERGER Florian; ALFIERI Lorenzo; CLOKE Hannah L.; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta; BALABANOVA S.; DANHELKA J.; VOGELBACHER A.; SALAMON Peter; CARRASCO I.; CABRERA-TORDERA A.j.; CORZO-TOSCANO M.; GARCIA-PADILLA M.; GARCIA-SANCHEZ R.j.; ARDILOUZE C.; JURELA S.; TEREK B.; CSIK A.; Casey J.; STANKUNAVICIUS G.; CERES V.; SPROKKEREEF Erik; STAM J.; ANGHEL E.; VLADIKOVIC D.; ALIONTE EKLUND C.; HJERDT N.; DJERV H.; HOLMBERG F.; NILSSON J.; NYSTRÖM K.; SUŠNIK M.; HAZLINGER M.; HOLUBECKA M|
|Citation:||HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES vol. 17 p. 4389-4399|
|Publisher:||COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantages of HEPS are that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed; and that ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are needed, however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that also need urgent attention; such as assessment of the full uncertainties in the forecast chain, a robust forecast skill assessment and focus on the interactions between model developing community, users of the system and the receiving end of the information. In this paper we identify research priorities within the users of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and in light of limited resources we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur on the development of operational HEPS in general.|
|JRC Directorate:||Sustainable Resources|
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