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dc.contributor.authorMIGLIAVACCA MIRCOen_GB
dc.contributor.authorDOSIO Alessandroen_GB
dc.contributor.authorCAMIA Andreaen_GB
dc.contributor.authorHOBOURG Rasmusen_GB
dc.contributor.authorDURRANT Tracyen_GB
dc.contributor.authorKAISER J.w.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorKHABAROV Nikolayen_GB
dc.contributor.authorKRASOVSKII Andreyen_GB
dc.contributor.authorMARCOLLA Barbaraen_GB
dc.contributor.authorSAN-MIGUEL-AYANZ Jesusen_GB
dc.contributor.authorWARD D.s.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorCESCATTI Alessandroen_GB
dc.identifier.citationJOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES vol. 118 p. 1-16en_GB
dc.description.abstractIn this study we present an assessment of the impact of future climate change on total fire probability, burned area, and carbon (C) emissions from fires in Europe. The analysis was performed with the Community Land Model (CLM) extended with a prognostic treatment of fires that was specifically refined and optimized for application over Europe. Simulations over the 21st 27 century are forced by 5 different high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B emission scenario. Both original and bias corrected meteorological forcings is used. Results show that the simulated C emissions o 30 ver the present period are improved by using bias corrected meteorological forcing, with a reduction of the inter-model variability. In the course of the 21st century burned area and C emissions from fires are shown to increase in Europe, in particular in the Mediterranean basins, in the Balkan regions and in Eastern Europe. However, the projected increase is lower than in other studies that did not fully account for the effect of climate on ecosystem functioning. We demonstrate that the lower sensitivity of burned area and C emissions to climate change is related to the predicted reduction of the net primary productivity (NPP), which is identified as the most important determinant of fire activity in the Mediterranean region after anthropogenic interaction. This behavior, consistent with the intermediate fire-productivity hypothesis, limits the sensitivity of future burned area and C emissions from fires on climate change, providing more conservative estimates of future fire patterns, and demonstrates the importance of coupling fire simulation with a climate driven ecosystem productivity model.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipJRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managementen_GB
dc.titleModeling biomass burning and related carbon emissions during the 21st century in Europeen_GB
dc.typeArticles in periodicals and booksen_GB
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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