Climate impact of transportation A model comparison
Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and
GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2
emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline
projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and
CO2 emissions of five different global transportmodels using harmonized input assumptions on
income and population. For fourmodels we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax.All models
project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for
limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise
or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required.While all models project liquid
fossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas,
hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax
of 200 USD/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides
common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate roomfor
further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems.
GIROD Bastien;
VAN VUUREN Detlef;
GRAHN Maria;
KITOUS Alban Gabriel;
KIM Son H;
KYLE Page;
2013-11-19
SPRINGER
JRC85414
0165-0009,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC85414,
10.1007/s10584-012-0663-6,
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