Title: Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy
Authors: KRIEGLER ElmarPETERMANN NilsKREY VolkerSCHWANITZ Valeria JanaLUDERER GunnarASHINA ShuichiBOSETTI ValentinaEOM JiyongKITOUS ALBAN GABRIELMEJEAN AureliePAROUSSOS LeonidasSANO FuminoriTURTON HalWILSON CharlieVAN VUUREN Detlef
Citation: TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE vol. 90 no. Part A p. 45-61
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Publication Year: 2015
JRC N°: JRC85428
ISSN: 0040-1625
URI: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162513002576
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC85428
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover patterns of model behavior and indicate how results differ between model types. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study of 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity, and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to explain variations among policy-relevant model results
JRC Directorate:Growth and Innovation

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