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dc.contributor.authorKRIEGLER Elmaren_GB
dc.contributor.authorRIAHI Keywanen_GB
dc.contributor.authorBAUER Nicoen_GB
dc.contributor.authorSCHWANITZ Valeria Janaen_GB
dc.contributor.authorPETERMANN Nilsen_GB
dc.contributor.authorBOSETTI Valentinaen_GB
dc.contributor.authorMARCUCCI Adrianaen_GB
dc.contributor.authorOTTO Sanderen_GB
dc.contributor.authorPAROUSSOS Leonidasen_GB
dc.contributor.authorRAO Shilpaen_GB
dc.contributor.authorARROYO CURRAS Tabareen_GB
dc.contributor.authorASHINA Shuichien_GB
dc.contributor.authorBOLLEN Johannesen_GB
dc.contributor.authorEOM Jiyongen_GB
dc.contributor.authorHAMDI-CHERIF Meriemen_GB
dc.contributor.authorLONGDEN Thomasen_GB
dc.contributor.authorKITOUS ALBAN GABRIELen_GB
dc.contributor.authorMEJEAN Aurelieen_GB
dc.contributor.authorSANO Fuminorien_GB
dc.contributor.authorSCHAEFFER Michielen_GB
dc.contributor.authorWADA Kenichien_GB
dc.contributor.authorCAPROS Pantelisen_GB
dc.contributor.authorVAN VUUREN Detlefen_GB
dc.contributor.authorEDENHOFER Ottmaren_GB
dc.identifier.citationTECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE vol. 90 no. Part A p. 24-44en_GB
dc.description.abstractThis study explores scenarios of staged accession from the current situation of regionally fragmented and moderate climate action to a global climate policy regime. The analysis is based on scenarios in which a front runner coalition – the EU or the EU and China – embarks on immediate ambitious climate action while the rest of the world makes a transition to a global climate regime between 2030 and 2050. We assume that the ensuing regime involves strong mitigation efforts but does not require late joiners to compensate for their initially higher emissions. Thus, climate targets are relaxed, and although staged accession can achieve significant reductions of global warming, the resulting climate outcome is unlikely to be consistent with a 2 degree target. The addition of China to the front runner coalition can reduce pre-2050 excess emissions by 20–30%, increasing the likelihood of staying below 2 degrees. Not accounting for potential co-benefits, the cost of front runner action is found to be lower for the EU than for China. Regions that delay their accession to the climate regime face a trade-off between reduced short term costs and higher transitional requirements due to larger carbon lock-ins and more rapidly increasing carbon prices during the accession period.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipJRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transporten_GB
dc.titleMaking or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policyen_GB
dc.typeArticles in periodicals and booksen_GB
JRC Directorate:Growth and Innovation

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