Preface - Hydrological ensemble prediction systems

This article is the Preface to a Special Issue in the Journal Hydrological Processes. The Special Issue stems from the recent emergence of a distinct field of researchers and operational forecasters who predict river flow with hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPSs). These systems generate an ensemble of river flow forecasts for the same forecast period, providing a probabilistic assessment of future river flows, instead of just relying on a single prediction. Ensembles can be generated in a variety of ways, one of the most popular being the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts from ensemble prediction system, which are then used as input to hydrological models (Cloke and Pappenberger, 2009; Cuo et al., 2011) to generate HEPS-based forecasts. This approach was the basis for the development of the European Flood Awareness System(EFAS) (Thielen et al., 2009).

CLOKE Hannah L.;  PAPPENBERGER F.;  VAN ANDEL Jan Schalk;  SCHAAKE John;  THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta;  RAMOS M-H.; 

2014-01-02

WILEY-BLACKWELL

JRC87278

1099-1085,   

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.v27.1/issuetoc,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC87278,   

10.1002/hyp.9679,