Assessing Temporal Changes in Global Population Exposure and Impacts from Earthquakes

It is frequently conveyed, especially in the media, an idea of “increasing impact of natural hazards” typically attributed to their rising frequency and/or growing vulnerability of populations. However, for certain hazard types, this may be mostly a result of increasing population exposure due to phenomenal global population growth, especially in the most hazardous areas. We investigate temporal changes in potential global population exposure and impacts from earthquakes in the XXth century. Spatial analysis is used to combine historical population distributions with a seismic intensity map. Changes in victims were also analyzed, while controlling for the progress in frequency and magnitude of hazard events. There is also a focus on mega-cities and implications of fast urbanization for exposure and risk. Results illustrate the relevance of population growth and exposure in risk assessment and disaster outcome, and underline the need for conducting detailed global mapping of settlements and population distribution.

CARNEIRO FREIRE Sergio Manuel;  EHRLICH Daniele;  FERRI Stefano; 

2014-08-22

The Pennsylvania State University, USA

JRC88592

978-0-692-21194-6,