Dynamics of influenza and modes of transmission

The epidemiology of airborne infectious diseases, such as influenza, is characterised by multiple modes of transmission. In the case of influenza three modes of transmission have been identified; airborne transmission mediated by respirable droplet nuclei, droplet transmission mediated by inspirable large droplets, and contact transmission mediated by droplets settled in the environment. Their relative importance and the efficiency of control measures depend, among other factors, on the inactivation of viruses in different environmental media. Understanding the dynamics of transmission of influenza and the relative importance of the associated modes of transmission is of major interest since it would uncover the underlying biological and physical processes, and it can be of use for the design of effective and efficient intervention strategies. A series of mathematical models that describe the transmission dynamics of influenza in humans explicitly incorporating the modes of transmission, such as transmission via respiratory droplets and contact in space and time, were developed. Droplets dynamics is determined by their physical properties, whereas population dynamics is determined by, among other properties, the pathogen infectivity and the host contact rates. A fundamental time dependent model suggests that airborne infections, mediated by respirable droplets, provides the dominant mode of transmission in middle and long range epidemics whereas larger, so called inspirable droplets, be they airborne or settled, characterise short-term epidemics with high attack rates.

STILIANAKIS Nikolaos;  DROSSINOS Ioannis;  ROBINSON Marguerite;  WEBER Thomas P.; 

2014-09-08

European Mathematical Society Publishing House

JRC89092

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC89092,   

10.4171/OWR/2013/55,