Title: Do We Really Need to Calibrate All the Parameters? Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis to Simplify Microscopic Traffic Flow Models
Authors: PUNZO VINCENZOMONTANINO MarcelloCIUFFO BIAGIO
Citation: IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS vol. 16 no. 1 p. 184-193
Publisher: IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
Publication Year: 2014
JRC N°: JRC89193
ISSN: 1524-9050
URI: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?arnumber=6849526
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC89193
DOI: 10.1109/TITS.2014.2331453
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Automated calibration of microscopic traffic flow models is all but simple for a number of reasons, including the computational complexity of black-box optimization and the asymmetric importance of parameters in influencing model performances. The main objective of this paper is therefore to provide a robust methodology to simplify car-following models, that is, to reduce the number of parameters (to calibrate) without sensibly affecting the capability of reproducing reality. To this aim, variance-based sensitivity analysis is proposed and formulated in a “factor fixing” setting. Among the novel contributions are a robust design of the Monte Carlo framework that also includes, as an analysis factor, the main nonparametric input of carfollowing models, i.e., the leader’s trajectory, and a set of criteria for “data assimilation” in car-following models. The methodology was applied to the intelligent driver model (IDM) and to all the trajectories in the “reconstructed” Next Generation SIMulation (NGSIM) I80-1 data set. The analysis unveiled that the leader’s trajectory is considerably more important than the parameters in affecting the variability of model performances. Sensitivity analysis also returned the importance ranking of the IDM parameters. Basing on this, a simplified model version with three (out of six) parameters is proposed. After calibrations, the full model and the simplified model show comparable performances, in face of a sensibly faster convergence of the simplified version.
JRC Directorate:Energy, Transport and Climate

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