Analysis of Critical Infrastructure Network failure in the European Union: A combined Systems Engineering and Economic Model

Over the last decade, the European Commission has placed Critical Infrastructure Protection under the spotlight, which has resulted in the development of the European Programme for Critical Infrastructure Protection (EPCIP). The legislative instrument of EPCIP is the European Council Directive 2008/114/EC. This directive sets out to identify and designate European Critical Infrastructures (ECI’s) with the intention to assess and address the needs for improving the protection of key CIs. To this end, JRC is developing a tool for the estimation of the impact of critical infrastructure network failure on the economy. This tool is a combined Systems Engineering and Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output model (SE-DIIM for short). It is aimed at aiding decision makers and critical infrastructure operators. We discuss the application of the model by analyzing the economic losses incurred in the 2003 Italian electricity network outage. The loss is estimated at both national and regional levels i.e. northern, central and southern parts of Italy and Sicily with a focus on 9 CI’s. The resilience of infrastructures and economic sectors, in terms of their ability to withstand and recover from disruptions, is included in the analysis. We estimate that the economic loss for the case study under consideration is between €55 million and €207 million. We conclude that the combination of the SE and the DIIM components provides a complete framework for assessing the economic impact of critical infrastructure network failure on a national or regional economy.

JONKEREN Olaf Erik;  AZZINI Ivano;  GALBUSERA Luca;  NTALAMPIRAS Stavros;  GIANNOPOULOS Georgios; 

2015-01-05

SPRINGER

JRC89317

1566-113X,   

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11067-014-9259-1,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC89317,   

10.1007/s11067-014-9259-1,