Title: Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology
Authors: DI MARCO MorenoBUCHANAN Graeme, M.SZANTOI ZOLTANHOLMGREN MilenaGROTTOLO MARASINI GabrieleGROSS DORITTRANQUILLI SandraBOITANI LuigiRONDININI Carlo
Citation: PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES vol. 369 no. 1643 p. 20130198
Publisher: ROYAL SOC
Publication Year: 2014
JRC N°: JRC89899
ISSN: 0962-8436
URI: http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1643/20130198
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC89899
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0198
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Although conservation intervention has reversed the decline of some species, our success is outweighed by a much larger number of species moving towards extinction. Extinction risk modelling can identify correlates of risk and species not yet recognized to be threatened. Here, we use machine learning models to identify correlates of extinction risk in African terrestrial mammals using a set of variables belonging to four classes: species distribution state, human pressures, conservation response and species biology. We derived information on distribution state and human pressure from satellite- borne imagery. Variables in all four classes were identified as important predictors of extinction risk, and interactions were observed among variables in different classes (e.g. level of protection, human threats, species distribution ranges). Species biology had a key role in mediating the effect of external variables. The model was 90% accurate in classifying extinction risk status of species, but in a few cases the observed and modelled extinction risk mismatched. Species in this condition might suffer from an incorrect classification of extinction risk (hence require reassessment). An increased availability of satellite imagery combined with improved resolution and classification accuracy of the resulting maps will play a progressively greater role in conservation monitoring.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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