Title: Will China comply with its 2020 carbon intensity commitment?
Citation: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE \& POLICY vol. 47 p. 108-117
Publication Year: 2015
JRC N°: JRC90514
ISSN: 1462-9011
URI: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901114002172
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.11.004
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: At the Conference of the Parties held in Copenhagen in 2009 (COP 15), the Chinese government announced its 2020 commitment to reduce the carbon intensity of the Chinese economy to 40-45% of its 2005 level. A number of analysts have criticized this target, indicating that these reductions can be achieved without the implementation of any active climate change policy. In this paper, we test this argument using a combined input-output based econometric projection approach and the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). Our results show that the projected carbon intensity for 2020 is likely to be 50% lower than the carbon intensity of 2005, without any additional active climate change policy measures performed by the Chinese government. On top of it, our study indicates that the total volume of CO2 emissions would be by 2020 seven times the volume of the year 2005.
JRC Directorate:Growth and Innovation

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