Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
|Title:||Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways|
|Authors:||BALKOVIC Juraj; VAN DER VELDE Marijn; SKALSKY R; XIONG W; FOLBERTH Chris; KHABAROV Nikolay; SMIRNOV A; MUELLER N; OBERSTEINER Michael|
|Citation:||GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE vol. 122 p. 107-121|
|Publisher:||ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||Wheat is the third largest crop globally and an essential source of calories in human diets. Maintaining and increasing global wheat production is therefore strongly linked to food security. A large geographic variation in wheat yields across similar climates points to sizeable yield gaps in many nations, and indicates a regionally variable flexibility to increase wheat production. Wheat is particularly sensitive to a changing climate thus limiting management opportunities to enable (sustainable) intensification with potentially significant implications for future wheat production. We present a comprehensive global evaluation of future wheat yields and production under distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agro-ecosystem model. We project, in a geographically explicit manner, future wheat production pathways for rainfed and irrigated wheat systems. We explore agricultural management flexibility by quantifying the development of wheat yield potentials under current, rainfed, exploitable (given current irrigation infrastructure), and irrigated intensification levels. Globally, because of climate change, wheat production under conventional management (~2000) would decrease across all RCPs by 37 to 52 and 54 to 103 Mt in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively. However, the exploitable and potential production gap will stay above 350 and 580 Mt, respectively, for all RCPs and time horizons, indicating that negative impacts of climate change can globally be offset by adequate intensification using currently existing irrigation infrastructure and nutrient additions. Future world wheat production on cropland already under cultivation can be increased by ∼35% through intensified fertilization and ∼50% through increased fertilization and extended irrigation, if sufficient water would be available. Significant potential can still be exploited, especially in rainfed wheat systems in Russia, Eastern Europe and North America.|
|JRC Directorate:||Sustainable Resources|
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.