THE ROLE OF THE EU CAR CO2 REGULATION TO ACHIEVE LOWER CO2 EMISSIONS FROM TRANSPORT BY 2030

In an energy system model based study we analyse the potential impact of the current and an alternative stricter EU CO2 car legislation beyond 2020 on transport related CO2 emissions, on the uptake of electrified vehicles, on the reduction of fossil oil based fuel use, and on total energy system costs. We find that the legislation of EU car CO2 emissions is crucial to curb CO2 transport emissions in the region. Our model results for 2030 show that a stricter target of 70g CO2/km for cars by 2030 could reduce total transport CO2 emissions by more than 7% and oil dependence by more than 3% already in 2030 versus the current legislation. In our model runs, the stricter CO2 target is met by a deployment of more efficient internal combustion engine vehicles and higher shares of electrified vehicles. The impact on total system costs is less than 1%. We performed a sensitivity analysis, varying the learning rate for the costs of electrified vehicles between 5% and 15%. Our study indicates that when learning rates above 12.5% are achieved the deployment of electrified vehicles would drastically increase between 2020 and 2030, reaching shares above 40% by 2030.

THIEL Christian;  NIJS Wouter;  GAGO DA CAMARA SIMOES Sofia;  SCHMIDT Johannes;  VAN ZYL Arnold;  SCHMID Erwin; 

2014-12-03

IAEE - International Association for Energy Economics

JRC91686

http://www.iaee2014europe.it/pages/october29.html,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC91686,