Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: case study of dengue fever

Background: Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne disease worldwide. Disease transmission is critically dependent on climatic factors and there is much concern that climate change could spread the diseases to areas currently unaffected. The occurrence of autochthonous infections in Croatia and France in 2010 has raised concerns about a potential re-emergence of dengue fever in Europe. Methods: We used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) incorporating climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity) and socio-economic factors (population density, urbanisation, GDP per capita and population size) to model dengue fever risk, under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and climate change scenarios: short-term 2011-2040, medium-term 2041-2070 and long-term 2071-2100. The model was used to calculate yearly dengue incidence at a spatial resolution of 10 x 10 km grid covering all land surface of the currently 27 EU member states. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model dengue fever risk in Europe in terms of disease occurrence rather than mosquito presence. Findings: The results were presented using Geographical Information System (GIS) and allowed identification of areas at high risk. Dengue fever hot spots were clustered around the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the Po Valley in northern Italy. Interpretation: This risk assessment study is likely to be a valuable tool for policy makers and stakeholders assisting effective and targeted adaptation responses to reduce the likely increased burden of dengue fever in a warmer world.

BOUZID Maha;  COLÓN-GONZÁLEZ Filipe;  LUNG Tobias;  LAKE Iain R;  HUNTER Paul R; 

2014-11-14

BIOMED CENTRAL LTD

JRC91704

1471-2458,   

http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2458/14/781,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC91704,   

10.1186/1471-2458-14-781,