Accessibility and territorial cohesion in a case of transport infrastructure improvements with changing population distributions

Abstract

In the last decade or so many studies have looked into the impacts of infrastructure improvements on decreasing territorial disparities. In those studies population levels are usually assumed static, although future population levels likely change in response to changing accessibility levels as well as to other factors. This study uses future population distributions simulated by the LUMP land-use model to assess the impacts of large transport network investments on regional accessibility disparities. The results indicate that contrasting local urbanization patterns only modestly affect average national accessibility levels, but that those patterns have a considerable effect on regional inequality indicators. This underpins the importance of incorporating future population levels when assessing cohesion impacts of infrastructure investments.