Scenario analysis of gas crisis using the European Gas Assessment Model (EUGas)

The European Gas Assessment model (EUGas) is a country level model of the European gas transmission pipeline network which is being developed by JRC-IET (Joint Research Centre – Institute for Energy and Transport). The model aims at supporting Directive 2008/114/EC on “the identification and designation of European Critical Infrastructure (ECI)” and Regulation 994/2010 on “measures to safeguard security of gas supply”. The hydraulic model of the European gas network is developed using a combination of commercially available software. SynerGee Gas allows solving the steady state condition of a gas network under different load conditions. Within SynerGee Gas, a module based on ESRI ArcGIS Desktop, is able to import GIS data in various formats and specify a suitable geographic coordinate system to carry out the simulation and calculating the geometric parameters. EUGas was originally created in 2008 for 3 countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary). Currently EUGas covers 20 country models (Finland, Sweden, Denmark, France, Luxemburg, Belgium, Portugal, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece) and it is an on-going effort of updating and integrating up to the 26 countries with gas systems that comprise the European Union. The model is needed not only to assess national risks but also to better understand cross-border bottlenecks and the regional consequences of a national crisis. The paper presents the scenario analysis carried out for Denmark and Sweden region. The gas networks of these countries are interconnected. Moreover Sweden relies completely on the gas supplied by Denmark; thus, Sweden supplies may be affected in the event of a gas disruption in the Danish network. EUGas model has been used to run scenarios of gas disruption under peak-demand conditions in this region. The paper will show the importance of considering not only the high pressure transmission pipelines but also the medium pressure lines which are proved to provide resilience to the network in the event of gas disruptions.

RODRIGUEZ GOMEZ Nuria;  ZACCARELLI Nicola;  PAMBOUR Kwabena;  BOLADO LAVIN Ricardo; 

2015-11-10

International Gas Union

JRC92343

http://members.igu.org/old/IGU%20Events/igrc/igrc-2014/papers/wp5-14_zaccarelli.pdf,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC92343,