Title: A Science-Based Use of Ensembles of Opportunities for Assessment and Scenario studies
Citation: ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS vol. 15 no. 5 p. 2535-2544
Publication Year: 2015
JRC N°: JRC92564
ISSN: 1680-7316
URI: www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/2535/2015
DOI: 10.5194/acp-15-2535-2015
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The multi-model ensemble exercise performed within the HTAP project context [Fiore et al., 2009] is used here as an example of how a pre-inspection, diagnosis and selection of an ensemble, can produce much better and more reliable results. This procedure is contrasted with the often-used practice of simply averaging model simulations, assuming model difference as equivalent to independence, and using the diversity of simulation as an illusory estimate of model uncertainty. It is further and more importantly demonstrated how conclusions can drastically change when future emission scenarios are analysed using and un-inspected ensemble. The HTAP multi-model ensemble analysis is only taken as an example of a wide spread and common practice in air quality modelling.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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