A Science-Based Use of Ensembles of Opportunities for Assessment and Scenario studies
The multi-model ensemble exercise performed within the HTAP project context [Fiore et al., 2009] is used here as an example of how a pre-inspection, diagnosis and selection of an ensemble, can produce much better and more reliable results. This procedure is contrasted with the often-used practice of simply averaging model simulations, assuming model difference as equivalent to independence, and using the diversity of simulation as an illusory estimate of model uncertainty. It is further and more importantly demonstrated how conclusions can drastically change when future emission scenarios are analysed using and un-inspected ensemble. The HTAP multi-model ensemble analysis is only taken as an example of a wide spread and common practice in air quality modelling.
SOLAZZO Efisio;
GALMARINI Stefano;
2015-11-09
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
JRC92564
1680-7316,
www.atmos-chem-phys.net/15/2535/2015,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC92564,
10.5194/acp-15-2535-2015,
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