Title: Documentation of the European Comission’s EU module of the Aglink-Cosimo modelling system
Authors: ARAUJO ENCISO SERGIO RENÉPEREZ DOMINGUEZ IgnacioSANTINI FabienHELAINE SophieDILLEN KoenGAY Stephan HubertusCHARLEBOIS Pierre
Publisher: European Commission
Publication Year: 2015
JRC N°: JRC92618
ISBN: 978-92-79-46196-5
ISSN: 1831-9424
Other Identifiers: EUR 27138
OP LF-NA-27138-EN-N
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC92618
DOI: 10.2791/675854
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: This report documents the EU module of Aglink-Cosimo model. Aglink-Cosimo is a recursive-dynamic, partial equilibrium, supply demand model of world agriculture developed by the OECD and FAO Secretariats. The model is used to simulate development of annual supply, demand and prices for the main agricultural commodities produced, consumed and traded worldwide. Aglink-Cosimo covers 44 individual countries and 12 regions, and 40 commodities clearing markets at the world level. At the EU level, the Aglink-Cosimo model is used to produce the "Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU". This is a yearly exercise that provides a detailed overview of EU agricultural markets with a 10 year time horizon. It incorporates information from policy makers and market experts in the European Commission, stakeholders, researchers and modellers. The EU Outlook intends to provide a broad consensus about the evolution of European Agriculture in the medium-term. It serves as reference timeline for counterfactual policy analysis and market analysis done in numerous research sites in Europe. The report includes a detailed presentation and discussion of the structure and specific features of the model, along with the theoretical underpinnings. It also documents the process of calibration such as to obtain a medium-term baseline and different efforts towards the validation of results. Nonetheless, different applications in the area of uncertainty analysis and the use of partial stochastics are also included.
JRC Directorate:Growth and Innovation

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