Title: On the evaluation of climate model simulated precipitation extremes
Authors: TORETI ANDREANAVEAU Philippe
Citation: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS vol. 10 no. 1
Publisher: IOP PUBLISHING LTD
Publication Year: 2015
JRC N°: JRC93009
ISSN: 1748-9326
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC93009
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014012
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The evaluation of precipitation extremes is a paramount challenging issue in climate sciences and there is a need of both assessing changes in climate projections and comparing climate model simulations with observations. To address these needs, a non-parametric approach specifically designed for extremes is here proposed. The method is tested and applied to observations and CMIP5 historical simulations and future projections (under the high emission scenario RCP8.5) over the Euro-Mediterranean region. Results support the existence of a scaling relationship among models and between models and observations in terms of conditional mean of the extremes. However, the rescaled tails of models' precipitation show significant differences when compared with observations. Concerning future projections, models show an intensification of heavy precipitation (especially at the end of the 21st century) linked to a change in the conditional mean of extremes. More complex changes in the upper tails are not identified at the mid-century, while a lack of model agreement prevents drawing definitive conclusions for the end of the century.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.


Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.