This study presents a Montecarlo based methodology for the validation of PM10 concentration re-analyzed fields over the Po valley. A set of re-analyses is evaluated by applying the observation uncertainty (U) approach (Thunis et al., 2012b), developed in the frame of the Fairmode project (Forum for Air Quality Modelling in Europe, http://fairmode.ew.eea.europa.eu/). Modelled results from the Chemical Transport Model TCAM (Carnevale et al., 2008) for year 2005 are used as background values. The model simulation domain covers the Po valley with a 6x6 km2 resolution. Measured data for both assimilation and evaluation are provided by approximately 50 monitoring stations distributed across the Po valley. The main statistical indicators (i.e. Bias, Root Mean Square Error, correlation coefficient, standard deviation) as well as different types of diagrams (scatter plots and Target plots) have been produced and visualized with the DELTA evaluation Tool V3.6. The Target criteria is fulfilled by 97% of the sites for the re-analysed fields and by 61% for the modelled values, showing how the application of the assimilation technique improves TCAM background fields. The model under-prediction of PM10 concentration (NMB up to -70%) is reduced at almost all sites in the re-analysis (NMB in the range -20%-+20%,). The correlation coefficient R is higher for the re-analyzed fields (0.7-1) compared to the background ones (0.2-0.8).

CARNEVALE Claudio;  FINZI Giovanna;  PEDERZOLI Anna;  PISONI Enrico;  THUNIS Philippe;  TURRINI Enrico;  VOLTA Marialuisa; 

2015-03-26

SPRINGER INTERNATIONAL PUBLISHING AG

JRC93102

1873-9318,   

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11869-014-0307-2#,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC93102,   

10.1007/s11869-014-0307-2,