Title: Behavioral Modelling in a Decision Support System
Authors: RINALDI FRANCESCAJONSSON KLAS HENRIK RAGNARSALLNAES PETTERTRUBINS Renats
Citation: FORESTS vol. 6 no. 2 p. 311-327
Publisher: MDPI AG
Publication Year: 2015
JRC N°: JRC93773
ISSN: 1999-4907
URI: www.mdpi.com/journal/forests
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC93773
DOI: 10.3390/f6020311
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Considering the variety of attitudes, objectives and behaviors characterizing forest owners is crucial for accurately assessing the impact of policy and market drivers on forest resources. A serious shortcoming of existing pan-European Decision Support Systems (DSS) is that they do not account for such heterogeneity, consequently disregarding the effects that this might have on timber supply and forest development. Linking a behavioral harvesting decision model—Expected Value Asymmetries (EVA)—to a forest resource dynamics model—European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM)—we provide an example of how forest owner specific characterization can be integrated in a DSS. The simulation results indicate that the approach holds promise as regards accounting for forest owner behavior in simulations of forest resources development. Hence, forest owner heterogeneity makes the distribution of forest land on owner types non-trivial, as it affects harvesting intensity and, subsequently, inter-temporal forest development.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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