Title: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe
Authors: ALFIERI LORENZOBUREK PETER ANDREASFEYEN LucFORZIERI GIOVANNI
Citation: HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES vol. 19 no. 5 p. 2247– 2260
Publisher: COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Publication Year: 2015
JRC N°: JRC94407
ISSN: 1027-5606
URI: http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/19/2247/2015/hess-19-2247-2015.pdf
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC94407
DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: EURO-CORDEX, a new generation of downscaled climate projections, has become available for climate change impact studies in Europe. New opportunities arise in the investigation of potential effects of a warmer world on meteorological and hydrological extremes at regional scales. In this work, an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCP 8.5 scenarios is used to drive a distributed hydrological model and assess the projected changes in flood hazard in Europe through the current century. Changes in magnitude and frequency of extreme streamflow events are investigated by statistical distribution fitting and peak over threshold analysis. A consistent method is proposed to evaluate the agreement of ensemble projections. Results indicate that the change in frequency of discharge extremes is likely to have a larger impact on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude. On average in Europe, flood peaks with return period above 100 years are projected to double in frequency within a time range of three decades.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.


Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.