The Coastal Fluvial Flood (CFFlood) model for assessing coastal and fluvial flood impacts under current and future climate and socio-economic conditions is presented and applied at the European scale. Flood frequency is estimated as a function of river flows, extreme sea levels and estimated defence standards to determine the flood extent and depth. Flood consequences are estimated by combining the latter with information on urban areas, populationdensityandGrossDomesticProduct(GDP).Climateandsocio-economicscenarios and possible adaptation choices are included to analyse future conditions. In 2010, almost 6 % of the European population is estimated to live in the 100 year flood area. The corresponding economic loss is €236 billion, assuming no defences. Estimated flood protection reduces economic damage substantially by67 to 99 % and the number of people flooded is reduced by 37 to 99 % for the 100 year event. Impact simulations show that future climate and socioeconomic conditions may increase flood impacts, especially in coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Incontrast,impacts caused by fluvial floodingsometimes decrease, especially in southern andwestern regions of Europe due to decreases in precipitationand consequent run-off. Under high-end scenarios, flood impacts increase substantially unless there are corresponding adaptation efforts.
MOKRECH Mustafa;
KEBEDE Abiy;
NICHOLLS Robert J.;
WIMMER Florian;
FEYEN Luc;
2015-02-02
SPRINGER
JRC94634
0165-0009,
http://springer.libdl.ir/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1298-6,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC94634,
10.1007/s10584-014-1298-6,
This document is only visible at the Commission level.
You are not authorized to publish or distribute it outside the European Commission.
This is a public document. You can share this publication.
Additional supporting files
| File name | Description | File type | |
|---|
