Title: Impact of wind power uncertainty forecasting on the market integration of wind energy in Spain
Citation: APPLIED ENERGY vol. 159 p. 334-349
Publication Year: 2015
JRC N°: JRC94851
ISSN: 0306-2619
URI: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261915010405
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.08.104
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The growing share of electricity production from variable renewable energy sources increases the stochastic nature of the power system. This has repercussions on the markets for electricity. Deviations from forecasted production schedules requires balancing and buying or selling short term products on power or reserve markets and provides opportunities to actors who can offer flexibility in the short term. To model the value of flexibility using stochastic scenario extensions requires as a first step understanding the nature of the uncertainty. This study provides a new approach for determining the forecast errors of wind power generation in the time period between the closing of the day ahead and the intraday markets for the example of Spain. The methodology has been developed using time series analysis for the years 2010-2013 to find the explanatory variables of the wind error variability; applying clustering techniques to reduce the range of the uncertainty; and regressive techniques to forecast the probability density functions of the price of the intra-day. This methodology has been tested considering different system actions showing its suitability for developing intra-day bidding strategies and also for the generation of RES-E scenarios. This methodology could allow a wind power producer to optimally bid into the intraday market based on more accurate scenarios, increasing their revenues and the system value of wind.
JRC Directorate:Energy, Transport and Climate

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