Supporting sectorial adaptation to climate change through weather forecasts and natural hazard applications

Climate variability and climate change impact a large number of societal sectors including water, energy, agriculture and forestry, health, tourism and infrastructure. Medium to long term numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in combination with application-specific forecasting systems present an ideal “soft” adaptation strategy in contrast to “hard” measures which are often more costly. This requires a continuous improvement and increasing lead time of the NWP and applications systems in particular in terms of increasing lead time. In this paper the current status of the ECMWF forecast system is presented alongside imminent future developments such as a spatial resolution upgrade. Examples of flood, drought, malaria and fire forecasts are used to illustrate how the ECMWF NWP forecasts can be used as a soft adaptation tool to reduce loss of life and economic damage during extreme events. Particular focus is given on the African continent where climate change is expected to increase both frequency and impact of severe weather events in the future.

PAPPENBERGER F.;  EMERTON Rebecca;  DI GIUSEPPE Francesca;  SAN-MIGUEL-AYANZ Jesus;  CLOKE Hannah L.;  THIEMIG Vera;  HIRPA Feyera Aga;  WETTERHALL F.;  DUTRA E.;  SMITH Paul;  ZSOTER Ervin;  ARNAL Louise;  BAUGH Calum;  STEPHENS Elisabeth;  SALAMON Peter;  VOGT Juergen;  BARBOSA Paulo;  LAVAYSSE Christophe;  REVILLA ROMERO Beatriz;  PETROLIAGKIS Thomas;  LIBERTA' Giorgio;  THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta; 

2016-09-21

South African Society for Atmospheric Sciences

JRC97099