Title: Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
Authors: ALEXANDER PeterPRESTELE ReinhardVERBURG PeterARNETH AlmutBARANZELLI CLAUDIABATISTA E SILVA FILIPEBROWN CalumBUTLER AdamCALVIN KateDENDONCKER NicolasDOELMAN JonathanDUNFORD RobertENGSTROM KerstinEITELBERG DavidFUJIMORI ShinichiroHARRISON Paula A.HASEGAWA T.HAVLIK PetrHOLZHAUER SaschaHUMPENODER FlorianJACOBS CHRISTIAANJAIN A.k.KRISZTIN TamasKYLE PageLAVALLE CarloLENTON TimLIU JiayiMEIYAPPAN PrasanthPOPP AlexPOWELL TomSANDS Ronald DSCHALDACH RudigerSTEHFEST ElkeSTEINBUKS JevgenijsTABEAU AndrzejMEIJL Hans VanROUNSEVELL Mark D.a.WISE Marshall A.
Citation: GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY vol. 23 no. 2 p. 767-781
Publisher: WILEY-BLACKWELL
Publication Year: 2017
JRC N°: JRC97276
ISSN: 1354-1013
URI: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13447/full
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC97276
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13447
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
JRC Directorate:Growth and Innovation

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