Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies,
assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the
climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a
diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in
previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land
cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences
in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as
the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty
exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land
use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential
impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the
assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model
uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
ALEXANDER Peter;
PRESTELE Reinhard;
VERBURG Peter;
ARNETH Almut;
BARANZELLI Claudia;
BATISTA E SILVA Filipe;
BROWN Calum;
BUTLER Adam;
CALVIN Kate;
DENDONCKER Nicolas;
DOELMAN Jonathan;
DUNFORD Robert;
ENGSTROM Kerstin;
EITELBERG David;
FUJIMORI Shinichiro;
HARRISON Paula A.;
HASEGAWA T.;
HAVLIK Petr;
HOLZHAUER Sascha;
HUMPENODER Florian;
JACOBS Christiaan;
JAIN A.K.;
KRISZTIN Tamas;
KYLE Page;
LAVALLE Carlo;
LENTON Tim;
LIU Jiayi;
MEIYAPPAN Prasanth;
POPP Alex;
POWELL Tom;
SANDS Ronald D;
SCHALDACH Rudiger;
STEHFEST Elke;
STEINBUKS Jevgenijs;
TABEAU Andrzej;
MEIJL Hans Van;
ROUNSEVELL Mark D.A.;
WISE Marshall A.;
2016-09-12
WILEY-BLACKWELL
JRC97276
1354-1013,
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13447/full,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC97276,
10.1111/gcb.13447,
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