Employing a state-of-the-art multi-region market simulation model and database, the aim of this research is to further build on existing research which has attempted to tackle some of these questions at a global scale (von Lampe et al., 2014), in three ways. Firstly, it complements the broader global view provided by previous initiatives with a detailed one for the European Union, with some focus at the member state level. Secondly, different narratives or story lines are developed which reflect different philosophical outlooks resulting from government policy (as opposed to different assumptions pertaining to macroeconomic growth, technological change and biophysical constraints). As a result, this research sets its gaze more firmly on a more medium term future, rather than ‘blue sky’ research initiatives which examine the inherent uncertainty which is characteristic of long run (2050) and very long run (2100) time horizons (von Lampe et al., 2014). Finally, the scope of bio-based activities goes beyond the standard definitions inherent within national accounts data to encompass sources of biomass supply, bio-fuels and bio-chemicals, whilst also taking account of ‘new’ technologies (i.e. second generation fuels) which, hitherto, are still in their infancy but may be expected to play a key role in shaping the bio-economy in the medium term.
The structure of this report is as follows. Section 2 describes the data and model framework employed for this study. Section 3 outlines the experimental implementation of the study (i.e., data aggregation, modelling assumptions, scenario design etc). Section 4 presents the baseline results, whilst section 5 examines the resilience of EU bio-economic sectors by comparing the results of two alternative policy visions with those of the baseline. Additional analysis is also conducted to examine the sensitivity of bio-based sectors to divergent changes in world fossil fuel prices. Chapter 6 provides a summary of the key results and some final conclusions.
PHILIPPIDIS George;
M'BAREK Robert;
FERRARI Emanuele;
2016-04-12
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC98160
978-92-79-53477-5 (print),
978-92-79-53478-2,
978-92-79-63942-5,
1018-5593 (print),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 27563,
OP LF-NA-27563-EN-C (print),
OP LF-NA-27563-EN-N (online),
OP LF-NA-27563-EN-E,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC98160,
10.2791/66452 (print),
10.2791/529794 (online),
10.2791/793891,
