From a rise in B to a fall in C? SVAR analysis of environmental impact of biofuels

This is the first paper that econometrically estimates the impact of rising Bioenergy production on global CO2 emissions. We apply a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach to time series from 1961 to 2009 with annual observation for the world biofuel production and global CO2 emissions. We find that in the medium- to long-run biofuels reduce global CO2 emissions: the CO2 emission elasticities with respect to biofuels range between -0.57 and -0.80. In the short-run, however, biofuels may increase CO2 emissions temporarily. Our findings complement those of life-cycle assessment and simulation models. However, by employing a more holistic approach and obtaining more robust estimates of environmental impact of biofuels, our results are particularly valuable for policy makers.

PIROLI Giuseppe;  RAJCANIOVA Miroslava;  CIAIAN Pavel;  KANCS D'Artis; 

2015-11-26

PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD

JRC98179

1364-0321,   

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115004037,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC98179,   

10.1016/j.rser.2015.04.133,