P491-BioMod Deliverable 4913 Management Strategy Evaluation Error Model
In terms of analysing and simulating fisheries management systems, implementation error can be considered
to be the difference between management decisions (for example, the TAC or effort limits set for the following
year) and what the fishing fleets actually do (for example, the actual catch taken or fishing effort applied that
year). It is thought that implementation error can have a strong impact on the potential success of a
management plan, but the precise level of impact and the effect of implementation error combined with other
sources of uncertainty requires further study.
This document describes the application of a simple Management Strategy Evaluation simulation to investigate
the potential impacts of management plan implementation error on the sustainability of a stock. The
simulation is based on the cod stock in the Eastern English Channel and Southern Celtic Seas. The results are
illustrative only and are not meant to provide advice for the stock.
It was found that including implementation error in the projections (i.e. the realised catch being greater than
the desired TAC) not only led to the stock being more exploited (lower SSB, higher fishing mortality) but also
increased the uncertainty in the stock status. This will be of particular interest when a risk-based approach to
fisheries management is being considered.
The implementation of a management plan is strongly in influenced by a range of economic factors that drive
the dynamics of the fishing fleet. The simulations here do not make a full economic analysis and focus on the
sustainabilty of the stock rather than the economic viability of the fishing fleet. Future work will include more
economic modelling to improve the implementation error model.
Note that this report was not prepared using MS Word. It was prepared using Latex / KnitR and R. This allows
the computer code that was used to generate the results to be embedded in the report and executed during
the report compilation, including the plotting of figures. This is preferable for scientific report writing as it
ensures that the results presented here are ‘live’. Consequently, the following report may not strictly adhere
to the JRC template.
SCOTT Finlay;
GAMITO JARDIM José Ernesto;
MOSQUEIRA SANCHEZ Iago;
2015-12-22
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC98417
978-92-79-53604-5,
1831-9424,
EUR 27565,
OP LB-NA-27565-EN-N,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC98417,
10.2788/09205,
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