Title: P491-BioMod Deliverable 4913 Management Strategy Evaluation Error Model
Publisher: Publications Office of the European Union
Publication Year: 2015
JRC N°: JRC98417
ISBN: 978-92-79-53604-5
ISSN: 1831-9424
Other Identifiers: EUR 27565
OP LB-NA-27565-EN-N
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC98417
DOI: 10.2788/09205
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: In terms of analysing and simulating fisheries management systems, implementation error can be considered to be the difference between management decisions (for example, the TAC or effort limits set for the following year) and what the fishing fleets actually do (for example, the actual catch taken or fishing effort applied that year). It is thought that implementation error can have a strong impact on the potential success of a management plan, but the precise level of impact and the effect of implementation error combined with other sources of uncertainty requires further study. This document describes the application of a simple Management Strategy Evaluation simulation to investigate the potential impacts of management plan implementation error on the sustainability of a stock. The simulation is based on the cod stock in the Eastern English Channel and Southern Celtic Seas. The results are illustrative only and are not meant to provide advice for the stock. It was found that including implementation error in the projections (i.e. the realised catch being greater than the desired TAC) not only led to the stock being more exploited (lower SSB, higher fishing mortality) but also increased the uncertainty in the stock status. This will be of particular interest when a risk-based approach to fisheries management is being considered. The implementation of a management plan is strongly in influenced by a range of economic factors that drive the dynamics of the fishing fleet. The simulations here do not make a full economic analysis and focus on the sustainabilty of the stock rather than the economic viability of the fishing fleet. Future work will include more economic modelling to improve the implementation error model. Note that this report was not prepared using MS Word. It was prepared using Latex / KnitR and R. This allows the computer code that was used to generate the results to be embedded in the report and executed during the report compilation, including the plotting of figures. This is preferable for scientific report writing as it ensures that the results presented here are ‘live’. Consequently, the following report may not strictly adhere to the JRC template.
JRC Directorate:Space, Security and Migration

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