European landscape changes between 2010 and 2050 under the EU Reference Scenario: EU Reference Scenario 2013 LUISA platform – Updated Configuration 2014
The ‘Land-Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment’ modelling platform (LUISA) is primarily used for the ex-ante evaluation of EC policies that have a direct or indirect territorial impact. It is based on the concept of ‘land function’ for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. Beyond a traditional land use model, LUISA adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities.
LUISA has been applied to address the competition for land arising from the energy, transport and climate dimensions of EU policies and configured according to the EU Energy Reference scenario 2013 (updated configuration 2014) to produce high-resolution land use/cover projections up to 2050 and a related series of thematic indicators.
This report describes the stocks and the main land cover/use flows (LCF) taking place in Europe in the period 2010-2050 and the processes that cause those flows, thus providing insight on how the European landscape might change if the future happens according to a reference scenario consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including in particular the 2020 renewable energy targets).
Main findings:
• The extent of the land for housing and leisure (urban) and industrial/commercial and services (ICS) increases, while the area of agriculture, forest and natural land decreases;
• Urban and industrial land are expected to represent the highest share of net formation as % of the initial year (2010);
• Energy crops appear in the model as of 2020 and are expected to reach 135,479 km2 across Europe in 2050;
• Energy crops become the second most important land transformation in Europe (17%); approximately 90 % of the land consumed for energy purposes comes from land for food and feed, followed by forest and natural land;
• While a large proportion of land dedicated to food and feed crops is expected to be converted into dedicated energy crops, the net land losses are very small as a results of the conversion from forest land into food and feed production;
• New forest and natural land compensate in some way for quantity of losses or consumption by other uses; however the high value of the turnover indicator, reveal that those land-uses are unstable and vulnerable to the fast changes driven by economic development and climate changes, thus compromising the biodiversity and habitat conservation status;
• The conversion between farming types represent 35% over the total land changes between 2010 and 2050;
The results show the loss of natural and agricultural land because of ever-ongoing urbanisation and industrialization processes. The loss of natural and agricultural land for food production is even larger because of the advent of energy crops production incited by shifts in the European Energy supply system.
LOPES BARBOSA Ana Luisa;
PERPIÑA CASTILLO Carolina;
BARANZELLI Claudia;
AURAMBOUT Jean Philippe;
BATISTA E SILVA Filipe;
JACOBS Christiaan;
VALLECILLO RODRIGUEZ Sara;
VANDECASTEELE Ine;
KOMPIL Mert;
ZULIAN Grazia;
LAVALLE Carlo;
2015-12-15
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC98696
978-92-79-53912-1,
1831-9424,
EUR 27586,
OP LB-NA-27586-EN-N,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC98696,
10.2788/69970,
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