Current situation, strategies and proposed JRC roadmap for mid to long term monitoring
Each country in Europe is investing a considerable amount of effort in, on the one hand, defining a medium and long-term strategy through the adoption and gradual lifting of containment measures, and, on the other hand, minimising the economic impact of the covid-19- related crisis.
This technical report analyses the current situation, with a specific focus on the approaches at the European level and on a potential roadmap to capture more efficiently relevant data with regards to non-pharmaceutical containment measures.
Specifically, the aim of this report is three-fold:
- provide an overview of different approaches with regards to containment measures applied at a EU/EEA plus UK level: from the analysis of the four main categories of non-pharmaceutical measures (domestic movements, education sector activities, non-essential shops, events and gatherings) clearly emerge the different approaches and the reasoning behind them.
- provide an assessment of the impact of the lifting of containment measures based on the combined analysis of mobility and COVID-19 data compared to the timeline of the containment measures. Over the last month, a significant decrease of the lockdown mobility index can be detected in all the EU/EEA countries plus UK and there is not clear evidence of increase in the COVID-19 cases (both in the positive cases and in the fatalities) due to the combination of social distance measures implemented by the countries.
- Identify synergies between ongoing and newly planned activities, identify new requirements, and assess how the JRC database can best evolve to address these requirements. In particular, social and economic indicators need to be systematically monitored to provide a comprehensive analysis of the situation and/or provide elements to Member States for them to inform citizens on the international situation, and should be added to the database.
Based on the analysis, the following actions are recommended:
- Development of a subnational transmission map, as mandated in the Tourism and Transport Package of 13 May 2020.
- The development of an Early Warning System capable of providing Member States with (i) prompt information about critical contagion situations and possible new outbreaks of the disease and (ii) elements for the evaluation of the effectiveness of de-escalation approaches, simultaneously in health and economic terms.
- A Common database of measures linking health, social and economic indicators, based on a collaborative approach to feed the Early Warning System platform, as well as the socio-economic modelling on future scenarios.
The intended readership of the report is representatives to the COVID-19 Task Force, and JRC management and staff who have an interest in COVID-19 modelling.
PROIETTI Chiara;
SANTINI Marzia;
PROBST Pamela;
ANNUNZIATO Alessandro;
DE GROEVE Tom;
FONIO Chiara;
2021-01-22
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC121019
978-92-76-29142-8 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 30575 EN,
OP KJ-NA-30575-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC121019,
10.2760/400523 (online),
