Medium-to-long term macroeconomic effects of the COVID crisis: an investigation with RHOMOLO.
JRC Working Papers series on Territorial Modelling and Analysis No. 11/2022
This paper provides an analysis of scenarios on the evolution of GDP and aggregate consumption over the period 2020-2030, focusing on the role that the COVID-19 shock may play in terms of the economic scarring effects it might cause across the EU. The gap between estimated pre-crisis trends and projected paths for three important variables are obtained using simple forecasting tools. These variables are the labour force participation rate, private investment, and public consumption, all of which were major sources of disturbance at the economy-wide level during and after the crisis. By using these projections as shocks in the RHOMOLO model, a number of interesting results on the potential impact of the crisis on economic growth along the current decade are obtained. A comparative analysis across EU Member States reveals important differences as regards the potential graveness of the issue.
SANCHEZ MARTINEZ Miguel;
CHRISTENSEN Martin;
2022-07-25
European Commission
JRC129120
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC129120,
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