The role of migration for demographic change
This report analyses the effect of the Russian Invasion on the longer-term future of Ukraine’s population size and structure. The qualitative scenarios spanning a range of possible migration futures are translated into quantitative population projections using a multistate population model which shows the evolution of the size and age-sex composition of Ukraine’s population up to 2052. Under the most pessimistic scenario of Long war, low return scenario we project a decline of 30% of the population. The difference of in population decline across the four considered migration scenarios matches the uncertainty in the UN projections suggesting that migration will be similarly important as fertility and mortality in driving population change in Ukraine following the war.
UEFFING Philipp;
ADHIKARI Saroja;
K.C. Samir;
POZNYAK Oleksii;
GOUJON Anne;
NATALE Fabrizio;
Ueffing, P., Adhikari, S., K.C., S., Poznyak, O., Goujon, A. and Natale, F., Ukraine`s population future after the Russian Invasion, EUR 31439 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2023, ISBN 978-92-68-00430-2, doi:10.2760/756870, JRC132458.
2023-03-07
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC132458
978-92-68-00431-9 (online),
978-92-68-00430-2 (print),
1831-9424 (online),
1018-5593 (print),
EUR 31439 EN,
OP KJ-NA-31-439-EN-N (online),
OP KJ-NA-31-439-EN-C (print),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC132458,
10.2760/607962 (online),
10.2760/756870 (print),
