A spatial epidemiological model with contact and mobility restrictions

Several spatiotemporal epidemiological models have described how contact and mobility restrictions have a dynamic eect on morbidity and mortality of fast transmitting pathogens in epidemics. Despite this, there has been rather limited contributions looking at policy optimization. This work combines a new spatiotemporal epidemiological model of a heterogeneous mixed population located at different places with an optimal control approach to show the effects of contact and mobility restrictions under policy optimization. The objective of optimization not only includes epidemiological but also socio-economic implications of the restrictions. Several scenarios are numerically investigated and the dependence of the optimal policy on some basic epidemiological parameters is analyzed. The results illustrate the strong impact of the spatial heterogeneity on the optimal policy measures. Analysis of the stability of the disease free equilibrium of the model is also presented.

FERRACCIOLI Federico;  STILIANAKIS Nikolaos;  VELIOV Vladimir; 

2024-04-23

TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC

JRC134761

1387-3954 (online),   

https://doi.org/10.1080/13873954.2024.2341693,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134761,   

https://doi.org/10.1080/13873954.2024.2341693 (online),