Prototype for a microsimulation model projecting the demand for long-term care up to 2070
This study presents a prototype microsimulation demographic model that projects the risk of developing long-term care needs for the over-50 population in selected European countries from 2011 to 2070. It uses the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) microdata and a dynamic demographic microsimulation model based on CEPAM-Mic. The model considers demographic and risk factors associated with the prevalence of disability, such as sex, age, country of residence, immigration status, education, chronic disease, smoking, and obesity.
The results indicate a persistent trend of an increasing proportion of the population with long-term care needs and chronic diseases, largely due to demographic factors and aging. Alternative scenarios with significant reductions in smoking and obesity are shown to be not enough to offset this trend. Preventing age-specific long-term care needs will have limited impact and comprehensive interventions are needed to address the health and long-term care challenges posed by an aging population. The study also emphasizes the importance of considering education as a key factor in population health and the need for health promotion and disease prevention efforts.
BELMONTE Martina;
GRUBANOV-BOSKOVIC Sara;
NATALE Fabrizio;
CONTE Alessandra;
BELANGER Alain;
SABOURIN Patrick;
Belmonte, M., Grubanov-Boskovic, S., Natale, F., Conte, A., Belanger, A. and Sabourin, P., Demographic microsimulation of long-term care needs in the European Union, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2023, doi:10.2760/373981, JRC135303.
2023-12-20
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC135303
978-92-68-09582-9 (online),
978-92-68-09581-2 (print),
1831-9424 (online),
1018-5593 (print),
EUR 31739 EN,
OP KJ-NA-31-739-EN-N (online),
OP KJ-NA-31-739-EN-C (print),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135303,
10.2760/941182 (online),
10.2760/373981 (print),
