European Flood Awareness System – A technical assessment of CEMS EFAS performance during the floods in Southern Italy in September and November 2022
Technical report prepared by CEMS operational centres in collaboration with the JRC to evaluate the performances of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service European Flood Awareness System during a specific flood event.
This report presents an assessment of the performance of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) of the Copernicus Emergency Service (CEMS) during the flood events in South-West Italy in fall 2022, with a specific focus on the Campania Region, and on the Volturno River Basin. The analysis evaluates EFAS products and service in terms of accuracy and timeliness of the forecasts; quality and effectiveness of the communications during the events. This evaluation has the purpose to uncover weaknesses of the service and prioritize follow-up actions.
The flood events in Campania Region in September and November 2022 were driven by intense precipitation and caused widespread disruptions and damages. The lack of observations (meteorological and especially hydrological measurements) impeded the quantitative evaluation of EFAS forecasts. Therefore, the assessment relied on news and social media information. EFAS issued 11 and 10 notifications for riverine and flash floods prior to the September and November events, respectively. Pre-tasking activities in view of the potential acquisition of satellite observations was completed for both the events.
The semi-quantitative analysis highlighted overall satisfactory performances of EFAS. Nevertheless, forecasted impacts were likely affected by overestimation: it must be noted that EFAS hydrological model is not calibrated in the area due to the lack of in situ observations. The follow-up actions include efforts to motivate local agencies to share their in-situ data, and the continued improvement of the EFAS hydrological model set-up.
ZVOLENSKÝ Marcel;
MIKULIČKOVÁ Michaela;
RANDUSOVÁ Beata;
HALAJ Martin;
LEMKE Carina-Denise;
SCHIRMEISTER Zora;
WALAWENDER Jakub;
ZIESE Markus;
GARCIA PADILLA Mercedes;
GRIMALDI Stefania;
SALAMON Peter;
2025-04-04
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC140912
978-92-68-25792-0 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 40269,
OP KJ-01-25-195-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC140912,
10.2760/7190152 (online),
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