The Role of Migration and Fertility for the Future Size of the EU’s Population
The EU’s population is peaking after decades of below-replacement fertility across its Member States. However, the population size of some EU countries is projected to continue to increase due to migration and the general emergence of migration as a significant driver of population change in high-income, post-demographic transition regions such as the EU. This policy brief analyses the complex interplay of fertility and migration on the future population size of EU member states. It specifically looks at the impact of migration within the EU and from outside the EU. Our findings show considerable disparities in population dynamics across EU countries and the important role that migration between Member Statesn plays in shaping their demographic future. However, our results suggest that migration is unlikely to fully compensate for low fertility levels to prevent population decline in most EU countries. In the policy context, migration can be complementary levers to address challenges arising from population ageing and population decline in low fertility regions.
UEFFING Philipp;
ZUBELDIA RAZQUIN Marije;
NATALE Fabrizio;
2025-03-10
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC141069
978-92-68-25619-0 (online),
OP KJ-01-25-176-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC141069,
10.2760/8696792 (online),
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