Contrasting yield outlooks for summer crops
Ukraine experienced unusually dry conditions in summer in the southern and eastern oblasts, leading to well below-average yields for summer crops there. In contrast, an adequate water supply and the absence of severe heat stress supported a positive yield outlook in the northern and western regions, despite delayed development.
A dry start to the summer of 2025 negatively affected the final stages of winter crop development in the central oblasts. In the west, the harvesting campaign was hampered by excessive rainfall in July, which reduced the quality of both grains and rapeseed. Altogether, winter crop yield expectations were slightly below average. While production forecasts for wheat and rapeseed are above the five-year average, thanks to an increased sown area, barley production is expected to fall below average, as the area has been considerably reduced.
During most of summer, a rainfall deficit persisted in the eastern and southern oblasts, negatively affecting grain maize, sunflower and soybean. By contrast, the northern and western oblasts profited from an adequate soil moisture, maintaining summer crop yield potential despite delayed development from late sowing and emergence.
At the national level, grain maize and soybean yields are forecast to be above the five-year average. Soybean production has been further supported by an expansion in cultivated area, while a limited reduction in maize area has not been sufficient to offset the expected yield gains, resulting in production estimates that are still above the five-year average. Sunflower yields, however, are
expected to remain below average, largely due to the drought in the south, where most sunflower cultivation takes place; this prediction is supported by the oblast-level analysis. However, the production outlook remains around average, as the sown area increased.
BEN AOUN Wassim;
BUSSAY Attila;
CERRANI Iacopo;
CLAVERIE Martin;
HENIN Riccardo;
LEMOINE Guido;
MOREL Julien;
NISINI Luigi;
DE PALMA Pierluca;
PANARELLO Lorenzo;
MERONI Michele;
NIEMEYER Stefan;
ROSSI Mattia;
TARNAVSKY Elena;
CLAVERIE Martin;
BEN AOUN Wassim;
NIEMEYER Stefan;
2025-09-15
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC141671
2600-2817 (online),
OP KJ-01-25-023-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC141671,
10.2760/4731628 (online),
