Workshop report
Tipping points are critical thresholds in many nonlinear dynamic systems. When reached, the system moves to an irreversible and self-sustained reorganization into a new equilibrium.
As the world rapidly approaches 1.5°C of global warming, the risk of triggering catastrophic Earth System tipping points (ESTP) is escalating – a problem compounded by the present weakening around climate action. The broaching of ESTPs would have severe regional and global impacts on ecosystems, climate, and economy, and pose a significant new security threat to European societies.
Europe is vulnerable to the collapse of several tipping elements of the Earth system, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Mediterranean and Boreal forests, European glaciers, and Greenland's Ice sheet, as well as the loss of tropical coral reefs.
To prepare for the far-reaching consequences of crossing these ESTPs, Europe requires anticipatory governance, which includes the development of early warning monitoring systems, improved integration of ESTP into socio-economic and financial risk models, and strategic foresight methods to enhance its ability to anticipate and respond to these systemic risks.
The workshop entitled: Raising Awareness of Earth System Tipping Points: Implications for EU Governance, held in Brussels on November 2024, brought together experts from various fields, including Earth-System sciences, mathematics, economics, finance and social sciences, as well as policymakers, to discuss the implications of ESTP for EU governance and explore ways to address these events.
This report provides a detailed account of the workshop discussions with each chapter presenting headline findings, presentation summaries and additional conclusions. This workshop report accompanies a Science for Policy Brief (Roman Cuesta et al, 2025), published in February 2025.
GALMARINI Stefano;
ROMAN CUESTA Rosa Maria;
DENTENER Frank;
RUIZ MORENO Ana;
ALESSI Lucia;
ASIKAINEN Tommi;
BATHIANY Sebastian;
CORBANE Christina;
DE GROEVE Tom;
DENNIS Donovan Patrick;
DIMITRIVICS Ana;
DONGES Jonathan;
FUSSEL Hans Martin;
GARCIA LEON David;
HEBDEN Sophie;
HOEDJES Patrick;
LAYBOUM Laurie;
LENTON Tim;
LORIANI Sina;
LUCARINI Valerio;
MARZI Sepehr;
MILKOREIT Manjana;
MONASTEROLO Irene;
NAKICENOVIC Nebojsa;
NESTOROVA Bella;
POLJANSEK Karmen;
POLLARD Vicky;
SALMON-GENEL Margaux;
SPAISER Viktoria;
STAMMER Detlef;
STANTON-GEDDES Zuzana;
STOERK Thomas;
STUPARU Dana;
TORETI Andrea;
TRZCINSKA Agnieszka;
VAUTARD Robert;
WINKELMANN Ricarda;
YANG Shuting;
ZAUNBERGER Karin;
2025-06-10
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC141821
978-92-68-28043-0 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 40334,
OP KJ-01-25-305-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC141821,
10.2760/9047293 (online),
